Terrorism Threat in 2030

In 2030 the idea of a group of terrorists storming into a high end shopping mall, killing innocent civilians and laying siege to a building for days on end is quite unimaginable. Just as those in 2030 can’t imagine living in such a perilous and insecure past so does those in the past we imagine would find the stability and secure future we experience today a distant impossibility and an illusion.

In 2013 you could buy an identity card of the streets. What was more shameful was that these were genuine identity cards supplied by the same government officials mandated to safe guard the integrity of such a sensitive security asset. It’s a lesser evil if this kind of fraud and knife in the back of mother Kenya was carried out by private individuals with no affiliation to government or access to government documents. But your own privileged sons and daughters selling you to the enemy for a plate full of greed is indeed painful and a curse.

How terribly true the saying 'kikulacho ki nguoni mwako' played out in the last terrorist attack in Kenya. That an impostor with an evil intent can live among us, rent a house next door, start a business just like a true neighbor, then suddenly turn on us, wrecking havoc in our cities and border towns. One can only imagine how terrified one would have been living at such a time.

But that is 2013; we live in different times now. Thanks to the changes that the whole nation from the government to the citizenry has embraced since then. Why we can safely relax on our laurels. Reconciled to the assurances of the security measures we have set up, religious tolerance we have nurtured in blood and tears, the social bridges of reconciliation and patriotism we have built. The only reminder we bring of a time as was in 2013 is vigilance.

Immediately after the Westgate attack, as the vibration that shook the very fabric of our sense of safety settled into a painful realization of our vulnerability. The Kenyan spirit of comebacks kicked in and like a new oiled machine, the government and citizenry pistoned into action. It happened that some security policies were already in the making and only required implementation. In some cases we borrowed best practices and localized them, we even invented and thought out our own ideas into projects. There is no one initiative that could be said was the first to be carried out. Everything seemed to come into an ultimate convergence of deliberate push for change.

It was such a shame that around the year 2013 the public was treated to the same official incompetence and criminal negligence. For the umpteenth time the script was the same, the intelligence was there but no action was taken to pre-empt the threat. Fortunately that statement was last used around this time in our past. Because since then, security became the preserve of all Kenyans and not the preserve of our security organs. The country could not contain the eruption of new ideas and fundamental changes championed by the public. Some of the demands read like the riots act against terrorism.

Some suggested the establishment of independent specialized rapid response units with personnel drawn from NIS, military intelligence, police and the executive arm of the government. These independent units would have the capacity to act on intelligence even as it is being relayed through traditional chain of command. These rapid response units would cut through the bureaucracy and report only to the in-charge.

Some suggested amending the NIS act to allow them not only identifies treats but also prepare counter measures. The NIS would have the capacity to act on threats if the relevant arm of government was taking too long to act on the NIS recommendation and the public was in imminent danger. So no longer could they just offer intelligence and then sit on their hands and watch the country burn. They would be the first line of offense within the country and would be required in case of an attack to show tangible pre-emptive actions that they undertook since learning of the threat.

Some also wanted to see foreign based intelligence networks created. We wanted to see and our enemy to feel our presence in their back yard, in their midst. We wanted a CIA style of foreign based operations that neutralized threats while still far away from our homeland.  We no longer wanted to be sitting ducks waiting for the net volley of fireworks. Again we all just wanted to create multiple layers of securities barriers between terror and our children.

Around the year 2013 no one knew if there even existed an R&D department in our security setup. Did we even have an IT department in our police service worth speaking about? How much did the country around this time invest in innovation, on technologies that could bridge the gaping holes in our security layout? When was the last time, if ever, did the police engage the private sector in investing in security? When could they have ever seen a police inspector giving a talk to an outfit such as iHUB about what the police are looking for in fresh innovation including apps. We all know that around the year 2013 the country was a budding ICT hub. Code writers and venture capitalist were itching to lay out new security products into the market. From personal security products, home and office security, to neighborhood and village security solutions.   

It would be impossible for another Westgate attack to occur on the same scale of destruction and helplessness that followed the event. Simply because the terrorists would have been neutralized outside the country. If not, then they would have been stopped at the border by the no none-sense corruption free border officials. If not at the border point then they would have been netted by the efficacy of the nyumba kumi innitiative. A single step into the streets and all alarms would go off from the street cameras to bio-metric security applications on our transport systems. It would be impossible to rent a house leave alone start a business with fake papers.

Now it seems like so long ago when the Nairobi County finally set up surveillance cameras on all streets in the city, shopping centers and markets, in city estates like Eastleigh and even major slums. Of course this came complete with facial recognition software. The national government finally shipped in biometric security systems for border entry points, hotels and transport companies. Ordinary wananchi embraced the concept of nyumba kumi initiative to the man.